Saturday, 21 March 2020

Easy peasy

The junior engineers of WSP, the global transport consultants, doing the bidding of the East Sussex road lobby and their chums in the construction industry. Put some dots on a map, to destroy large and invaluable parts of a National Park, and take out houses in Southerham, Beddingham and Glynde. Their dots, overlaid on Google satellite image. 


Friday, 20 March 2020

Codswallop

We've been after Highways England for information about its evaluation of schemes to drive a new dual carriageway between Lewes and Polegate since August 2018. We've now got some transparency, and a report, by consultants WSP, that is high-level codswallop.

It suggests a new road of up to 16km between Southerham and Copthall, with between 8 and 12 major over-bridges, at a cost of up to £530m could be open by 2030, and save just over 9 minutes per journey by 2045. Attached to this is an utterly bogus Benefit Cost Ratio of between 2.2 to 2.5. It claims it is evident there will be no more investment in rail and bus services.

Here's a paragraph typical of the consultant' balderdash that peppers the 68 pages. Do you think we'll ever see this qualitative assessment and get the name of the people that wrote it ?

"A qualitative assessment of the anticipated environmental impacts of the A27 east of Lewes off-line scheme interventions was undertaken and concluded that there would likely be a large adverse impact on landscape for all interventions, and moderate adverse impacts on noise, historic environment and biodiversity."

And below are the routes they have been considering.



Thursday, 12 March 2020

Learning time

It was an entertaining performance by new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, at the despatch box for his first Budget. But for environmentalists, there was relish in this paragraph which rings real alarm bells. 

"Today, I’m announcing the biggest ever investment in strategic roads and motorway – over £27bn of tarmac. That will pay for work on over 20 connections to ports and airports, over 100 junctions, 4,000 miles of road."

Tarmac, is, of course a trademark, so let's consider the impact of this amount of asphalt/bitumen/tarmac style construction.  13,000 hectares of the stuff adds to water run-off, in a country slowly sinking under water we can't clear quickly enough to sop flooding. Alongside that water we get the particulate run-off created by tyres acting on the surface (both elements add to that pollution), plus oil, petrol, cadmium, zinc, rust and copper. The creation of asphalt creates particulate pollution. 

In 2017, the Office for National Statistics reported that greenhouse gas emissions from the UK road transport sector counted for one fifth of our UK total. Looking at major roads, the total of dual carriageway and motorway miles in the UK is 31,800 - Mr Sunak and Mr Shapps are looking at a 12% increase.  New roads induce more traffic, travelling at higher, more polluting speeds. 

The re-education of Messrs Sunak and Shapps on the issues facing our environment is a priority for 2020. 

Wednesday, 11 March 2020

The struggle continues

Our local MPs Maria Caulfield, for Lewes, and Caroline Ansell, for Eastbourne, have kept the prosect of a new road between Lewes and Polegate alive, if on life support, with the support of Transport Secretary Grant Shapps.

"A27 Lewes to Polegate" is listed as in the 'pipeline' for the third tranche of strategic network roadbuilding, called RIS3, which should run from 2025 to 2030. These are proposals that "Highways England will develop during up to 2025, so that they could enter construction in RP3. Funding for construction of these schemes has not been committed."

"The development process is not a commitment to construct particular projects. Many proposals are likely to gather views from stakeholders and local people who might be affected by a potential proposal, including through a non-statutory consultation. For front-runners, this process could include
taking a proposal to a full planning inquiry before the publication of the next RIS."

Our MPs, Mr Shapps, and Highways England can be certain that any plan for a new road will be fought with logic, determination and vigour.

Sunday, 19 January 2020

Modal shift ?

Caroline Ansell, now back as Eastbourne's MP, was one of the prime movers behind plans for a new dual carriageway between Polegate and Lewes; Maria Caulfield only got to chair the notorious A27 Reference Group when Caroline lost her seat in 2017.

So it's entertaining to see her newly-discovered green credentials...

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Build on

Mood music coming from Tory MPs lobbying for new dual carriageways in their various parts of the country suggests that the the five-year programme known as RIS2 will be announced by the Government before the end of the month.

In theory, some £23bn is available, taken from Vehicle Excise Duty income. It seems roads may not have got entangled with other infrastructure promises made by the Conservatives. Selfishly, we hope it's the North and Midlands that get investment in new roads that they don't really need....

Friday, 3 January 2020

Dom-ination

The activity of politics attracts people who think they're clever.

Many politicians claim the result of the 2016 referendum was flawed, because people simply didn't understand what they were voting for. At the end of 2019, it may be that people who voted for Boris Johnson didn't really understand they were getting Dominic Cummings.

Dominic has posted a blog inviting emails from very clever people, data scientists, economists, communications and policy experts, project managers, researchers, and "weirdos and misfits with odd skills" to join him at the heart of government.

It's an article bursting with forward-thinking about artificial intelligence, machine learning, physics, chaos theory and more.  Yet the only specific project mentioned is, wait for it, a road. He wants to recruit 'legendary builders' who work at speed: "If you think you are such a company and you could dual carriageway the A1 north of Newcastle in record time, then get in touch!".

This gives an unpleasant edge to Dom's quest for brilliant thinking. It exposes our hero as an impatient, entitled, local resident, who just wants this bloody road done. (Dom's family own a farm just south of Durham, on the Darlington Road). Most intelligent project managers will tell you that speed of construction and money go hand in hand.

The idea of dualling the A1 between Newcastle and the Scottish border started in the 1930s. In the 1970s, sections around and to the north of Newcastle were dualled over a 15-year period. Further north there were some bypasses and junction improvements, but all largely sticking to single lanes. There was more dualling in 2003 and 2004; other schemes were dropped in 2006 for lack of funding. In 2011, the route was declared one of national strategic importance, meaning future funding would come from central government. Road building had moved from simple policy, to a quest for value-for-money, and that has dogged the project - many would argue quite rightly.

In 2002, a 'multi-modal study' declared there was no economic justification for further dualling. In January 2017 Transport Secretary Chris Grayling promised to dual the lot; the route is some 59 miles long; 23 miles are dual carriageway, with 36 miles of single carriageway.

In 2015, the Department for Transport said that dualling north of Berwick was of 'low economic value', but the southern section could be improved - the justification was 'future traffic growth', and a low take-up of rail services. There are 86 trains every weekday from Newcastle to Edinburgh, taking 1hr and 35 minutes, and starting at around £25 single - advance tickets £10.90. The car journey, of 120 miles takes over two hours - estimated petrol cost £23.12.

 In 2018, Highways England produce a scheme to upgrade 13 miles for £290m, set to start in 2020, and complete in 2023.

Dom is clearly engrossed in deep physics, but unmoved by clear evidence that new roads create new traffic, largely commuters, and that more roads mean more carbon production and more pollution from tyre-shredding. Someone needs to move him from transmitting to listening, fast.

Sunday, 15 December 2019

Here we go again

The political football that is "new roads" gets an unwelcome kick from re-elected Lewes MP, Maria Caulfield, in her first comments to the Sussex Express. 

“There is a bid £450m to dual [the A27] and I will be working with Caroline Ansell, now the MP in Eastbourne, to try and fast track that."

Thursday, 28 November 2019

Poll

It is only one poll, but it's detailed at constituency level. The YouGov MRP poll has these estimates of the share for Lewes...

Conservative 47%
Libdems        41%
Labour             8%
Green               3%
Others              2%


Thursday, 21 November 2019

Wet

Conservative Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says there'll be a review of the proposed £3.5bn Oxford-Cambridge expressway, if he gets back to the job after the election.

 “I am not at all anti-roads and we have got a massive road investment project. I am just not satisfied that this scheme is going to provide the benefits that we first thought. Specifically, a lot of it is on flat land which is prone to flooding so the mitigation measures to protect against that will massively add to the cost of the project. I am disappointed with the speed of progress of east-west rail and I think it is by far the better solution to boost the Oxford-Cambridge-Milton Keynes link-up.”

Anyone else know of roods planned for areas prone to flooding ?

Wednesday, 13 November 2019

Up in the air

It seems the creation of new roads in this country is not necessarily the job of experts - from this extremely Civil Service response to my latest Freedom of Informaton enquiry, directed at the Department for Transport. The author is Serumun Biam, Correspondence Team, Strategic Roads, Economics and Statistics

Dear Mr Rogers,

Thank you for your request dated 8 October 2019, made under the Freedom of
Information Act 2000, for information on the A27 and proposal for enhancements to
the route between Lewes and Polegate. You specifically asked:

Can you confirm that you have a positive business case and supporting  papers for
an option to improve the existing A27 with RIS2 funding, as Ms Caulfield claims ?
Can you say who has written them?

The development of the second Road Investment Strategy (RIS2) is not dependent
on an organisation (Highways England or otherwise) having made a bid to the
Department for a specific, detailed proposal in order for a scheme to be included in
the investment plan or our pipeline of proposals to be explored or developed for a
future RIS.

Rather, the Department works with Highways England and other organisations to
develop a robust evidence base covering the current performance of the whole of the
strategic road network and future pressures on it. As well as Highways England's
own data and research, the evidence base encompasses our understanding of
stakeholder views (including from road users and local communities) assembled
through a process of engagement and consultation. The Department uses this
evidence base to decide how best to allocate the funding available, including the
operation, maintenance, renewal and enhancement of the network.

As Highways England has informed you, the output of the study investigating the
need (or otherwise) for an off-line improvement between Lewes and Polegate forms
part of that evidence base. And, as mentioned in our previous response to you, it
also includes the comments of Maria Caulfield MP as reported in the press. No
similar study for an on-line improvement to the A27 on its current route has been
undertaken, but as explained above, that would not prevent a decision being made
as part of RIS2 to explore or develop such an option.

In short, no options for how to proceed in relation to the A27 between Lewes and
Polegate have been ruled in or out of consideration at this stage beyond the
interventions already funded through the first RIS.


Thursday, 7 November 2019

Back to the 90s

Is there an election on ?

On the 13th March 2017, Maria Caulfield signed a letter to the Department for Transport, asking for £3m to investigate the building of a new road. "We believe that there is a compelling case for an offline dual carriageway between Lewes and Polegate, which will deliver substantial transport improvements and vast economic and environmental benefits to both the local and national economies".

Today a letter to my address. "I have always said I would only support a plan to dual the existing road, which would see the improvements we need but mitigate the environmental impact. We are expecting to hear the announcement about road funding at the end of the year and I wanted to reassure you that my position has still not changed.

"There is considerable political pressure from the Libdems in Eastbourne for a new superhighway which would cut through the heart of our countryside and I will not support this and would oppose it.

"If funding was agreed, work would start on the route options which would include the previous plans to dual the A27 from the 90s which had widespread support".

My reading ?  The three offline options are still in play.

Monday, 14 October 2019

Word games

The 130-page Government document published today, which includes the full Queen's Speech, uses the word 'roads' (in the sense of road-building) just once. The new code word from the Conservatives is 'infrastructure', which appears 46 times.

It says one bit of HS2 Phase 2 will definitely go ahead, from Lichfield to Crewe. This will cut the fastest (and most expensive) service from London to Crewe from 90 minutes to 55 minutes.

Crewe has a population of just over 70,000. The railway is the biggest employer; the town is also home to the HQ of Bargain Booze and a manufacturer of ice-cream vans.

Thursday, 10 October 2019

Working together.....

Transport for the South East are launching their first draft strategy, with Rupert Clubb at the podium. Note the sponsors of the event.

WSP, transport consultants, have taken the largest slice of the £3m set aside by former Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, to make the case for a new off-line dual carriageway between Lewes and Polegate.

Bosch are the biggest makers of car parts in the world.

Enterprise Rent-A-Car is the largest hire car company in the world, judged by fleet (2 million vehicles) and revenue.

Friday, 4 October 2019

On or off ?

At the end of June, we reported the written words of Maria Caulfield, MP for Lewes, on the A27 between Lewes and Polegate "I have made clear that I would like to see any funding to dual the existing road and improve access for all road users and not for a new road as some in Eastbourne would like".

Though Maria is currently PPS to Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, it's still not confirmed that a formal bid has been made to the Department for Transport to fund such a scheme.

In a masterfully-opaque response to a Freedom of Information enquiry, Mahmood Azam of Highways England says their strategic outline business case was present to the Government at the end of January.

"While the study considered off-line improvements which included small sections of online widening, it did not produce cost estimates or benefit cost ratios for an intervention to dual the existing A27 between Lewes and Polegate, or for an intervention which involved only online improvements to the existing A27 on its current route. "

Saturday, 21 September 2019

Setting

A couple of hopeful paragraphs from Julian Glover's review of UK landscapes for the Government.

"Our central proposal is to bring National Parks and AONBs together as part of one family of national landscapes, served by a shared National Landscapes Service (NLS) which will give them a bigger voice, bigger ambition and a new way of working to meet new challenges.

We also think what are now AONBs should be strengthened, with increased funding, governance
reform, new shared purposes with National Parks, and a greater voice on development. We think the current cumbersome title ‘AONB’ should be replaced. Our suggestion is that they should be called National Landscapes.

We would also like to see the encouragement of a wider range of non‑designated systems of landscape protection, which should be members of the national landscapes family and served by the NLS."

Thursday, 15 August 2019

Up to speed

I wanted to check that the Department for Transport knew that Maria Caulfield MP had changed her mind about the A27, and now wants funds to be spent on improving the existing road between Lewes and Polegate. I wrote before Ms Caulfield got a job at the Department, but it's good to know that the civil servants analysing new projects know what she thinks....

Dear Mr Rogers

A27 East of Lewes

Thank you for your email of 8 August asking if the Department is aware of the views expressed by Maria Caulfield MP regarding potential offline and on route options for enhancement of the A27 between Lewes and Polegate. 

I am happy to confirm that we are aware of the MP’s comments on this topic as reported in the local press.

Yours sincerely,

Michael Read-Leah
Road Investment Strategy Futures Division

Monday, 5 August 2019

Maria from the Ministry

Another from the You-Couldn't-Make-It-Up Department of Politics.


Saturday, 3 August 2019

Pop pickers

The non-elected shadow group "Transport for the South East", led by Rupert Clubb (above), has submitted its own list of priority schemes for major roads in the area, bidding for a share of a £3.5bn pot.

The problem is that TfSE is a shadow body, going through the early stages of public consultation about basic strategy and mission, and there's been no public consultation on these "Top Ten", and certainly no involvement from you and me in 'shortlisting': "Shortlisted schemes for the South East were assessed against a range of national criteria as well as Transport for the South East’s strategic objectives for the region, which focus on sustainable economic growth, improved quality of life and the environment."

If this new body really cared about the environment, do you think they should be so excited about their favourite roads ?

Thursday, 25 July 2019

Boris the Road Builder

Boris Johnson taking questions in the Commons today.

"I lost count in the course of this recent campaign of the number of dualling schemes and bypasses that I seemed to commit myself to. But I will certainly make sure that we invest massively in road, because although I believe passionately in mass transit, there's no doubt that for many people investment in our roads, improving our roads is absolutely essential for economic progress".