Let you give you the exact words provided by Mahmood Azer, Head of Network Strategy and Development Highways England, in response to my most recent Freedom of Information enquiry.
"The east of Lewes off-line study investigated the need (or otherwise) for an off-line improvement between Lewes and Polegate. To inform this, strategic cost estimates were produced for different off-line improvements (including both single and dual carriageways). The ‘most likely’ cost range from these strategic estimates was between £271 million and £528 million. These estimates include the base estimate, risk adjustment and inflation, and are based on Quarter 1 2016 prices. We have shared this cost estimate range with the Department for Transport.
"The strategic cost estimates reflect that the study is an early investigation. They are based on a lower level of detail and definition than would be available at later stages, and they would get refined if further scheme development work is undertaken. It is worth noting that if it is decided to undertake further work beyond this study, the specific options to take forward to public consultation would be identified at later stage."
Written with the precision of a trained engineer, it's not clear from Mr Mahmood if inflation since 2016 has been added - the Government's construction index suggests you could apply 7%, taking us to £565m. You'll note Mr Mahmood deliberately shys away from saying what his investigation into the 'need' for a new road found.
This puts the bid now in the secure hands of Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, who's demonstrated his judgement and insight in the role already, with railways, ferries and drones. Should he really be the only one who decides how to spend £23bn on England's road network, or should we have some independent and informed deciding what's in the best interests of our treasured yet disappearing countryside ?
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